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PROGRAM

PROGRAMME SCHEDULE

NOTE: All events will be held in the Xiedao Eco Resort, as well as accommodation
Keynote speeches will each take 40 minutes: 30 minutes PPT + 10 minutes Q&A
All other presentations will each take 20 minutes: 15 minutes PPT + 5 minutes Q&A
Computers and projectors will be available for presentations

OVERALL

Date
Time

SUN, 18 Oct 2009

MON, 19 Oct 2009

TUE, 20 Oct 2009

WED, 21 Oct 2009

 

Morning

Registration

Registration

Registration

Registration

 

Keynote 5 Bubbico (40’)
Keynote 6 Borthwick (40’)
Keynote 7 Tokai (40’)
Invited Wang (20’)

SS-K(4)

SS-Z
G

G

G

 

Opening Ceremony

 

Keynote 1 Wiener (40')
Keynote 2 Chongfu Huang (40')
Keynote 3 Salvi (40')
Keynote 4 Gordon Huang (40')

 

SS-iNTeg

SS-K(2)

SS-L

G

 

Noon

Lunch

Lunch

Closing Remarks
Lunch

 

Afternoon

SS-K(1)

G

G

G

SS- A

SS-K(3)

G

G

 

 

Night

Reception
RAC Councilors Meeting

Dinner
Risk Leaders Summit

Banquet

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

DETAILS


Sunday, 18 October, 2009

08:00-18:00

Registration: Lobby, Conference Building

18:00-19:30

Reception: Tianlongyuan Restaurant (天陇塬), Conference Building

20:00-21:30

RAC Councilors Meeting: Conference Room 5, Conference Building

 

Monday, 19 October, 2009

07:00-09:00

Breakfast:Kaifanlou Restaurant (开饭楼)

08:00-09:00

Registration: Lobby, Conference Building

 

09:00-09:15

Opening Ceremony: Hall, International Conference Centre

 

09:15-10:35

Plenary

Hall, International Conference Centre

Precaution and Oversight in a World of Multiple Risks (30'+10')

Jonathan Wiener

Duke University, USA

A Note On the Difference between Disaster Prediction and Risk Assessment in Natural Disasters (30'+10')

Chongfu Huang

Beijing Normal University, China

 

10:35-11:00

Tea Break and Photos

 

11:00-12:30

Plenary

Hall, International Conference Centre

How to Improve the Control of Major Accident Hazards? (30'+10')

Olivier Salvi

INERIS, France / European Virtual Institute for Integrated Risk Management, Germany

Analysis and Management of Risks in Watershed Environmental Systems (30'+10')

Gordon Huang

University of Regina, Canada

 

12:30

Lunch: Tianlongyuan Restaurant (天陇塬), Conference Building

 

14:00-17:30

Parallel Sessions, with Tea Break during 15:30-16:00

Conference Room 8, Conference Building

Special Session (K): FUZZY RISK MANAGEMENT IN DECISION MAKING (Part 1)

Chair: Ihsan Kaya

Istanbul Technical University, Turkey

K-31

Fuzzy Reliability Analysis in Risk Management

Ihsan Kaya

Istanbul Technical University, Turkey

K-29

A New Risk Analysis Approach Based on a Linguistic-Valued Lattice Implication

Da Ruan, Li Zou

Belgian Nuclear Research Centre (SCK?CEN), Belgium

K-27

Hybrid Fuzzy Set Theory (FST) and Set Pair Analysis (SPA) Modeling for Water Quality Evaluation

Dong Wang

Nanjing University, China

K-10

A Fuzzy Multicriteria Approach to Location Selection of Wastewater Treatment Plants

Mehmet Serdar Kilinc

Istanbul Technical University, Turkey

K-11

Risk Assessment of Air Pollution by Process Capability Indices Under Fuzzy Normal Distribution

Ihsan Kaya

Istanbul Technical University, Turkey

K-15

Fuzzy Multiattribute R&D Project Selection Using Real Options with Trinomial Lattice Approach

A. Cagri Tolga

Galatasaray University, Turkey

K-18

A Risk Management Model in Energy Sector Using Analytic Network Process Approach

Tuncay Gurbuz

Galatasaray University, Turkey

K-32

Selection of SAR Resources Based on Attribute Decision Making

Qihuang Mao

Shanghai Maritime University, China

K-3

A Fuzzy Group Decision Making Approach for Renovation and Retrofitting Project

Selcuk Cebi

Istanbul Technical University, Turkey

 

Conference Room 1, Conference Building

RISK ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT OF CHEMICAL AND INDUSTRIAL HAZARDS

Chair: Akihiro Tokai

Osaka University, Japan

G-91

Reducing the Risk of Reinforcement Corrosion in Concrete Structures and Stray Current Prevention in Metro Line

Yongjing Tang

Tongji University, China

G-3

Risk-Based Vulnerability Assessment Methodology for Petrochemical Plant

Chao Shi

China Academy of Safety Science & Technology, China

G-23

Hazard Evaluation and Numerical Simulation of Leakage and Diffusion for Continuous Point Source Gases

Jing Xin

The Chinese People’s Armed Police Force Academy, China

G-32

The Method for Determining the Risky Area of the Storage of Hazardous Substances

Kun Liu

China University of Mining & Technology, China

G-130

Comparative in Vitro Cytotoxicity Assessment of Some Manufactured Nano-Particulate Materials

Dong Chun Shin

Yonsei University, Korea

G-4

Study on Enterprise-Wide Risk Management Based on Risk Identification, Assessment and Countermeasures in China

Chao Shi

China Academy of Safety Science & Technology, China

G-81

The Risk Control of Flying Debris Accident in Demolition Blasting

Xu Gao

China University of Mining and Technology, China

G-73

Fuzzy Synthetic Evaluation of Chemical Incidents Decontamination Risk

Xiangxin Li

The Chinese People’s Armed Police Academy, China

G-1

Consequence Simulation of Vapor Cloud Explosion in LPG Storage Tank

Bin Huang

Petroleum Engineering Institute of Daqing Petroleum Institute, China

 

Conference Room 2, Conference Building

RISK ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL AND NATURAL DISASTERS

Chair: Gordon Huang

University of Regina, Canada

G-123

Regional Ecological Risk Assessment for Invasive Alien Plants of Compositae in Poyang Lake Basin

Guowen Xie

Guangzhou University, China

G-8

Prediction Analysis of Typical Landslides in the Three Gorges Reservoir

Deying Li

China University of Geosciences, China

G-26

Risk Assessment of Grassland Snow Disaster in Xilinguole League Based on Grid GIS

Danhong Zhang

Northeast Normal University, China

G-126

The Emergency Management System for Earthquake Hazard in Taiwan

Ming Jen Chuang

National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction, Taiwan

G-102

Uneven Information Diffusion And Earthquake Disaster Evaluation

Zhisheng Xu

PLA University of Science and Technology, China

G-37

Strong Earthquake Activity and Its Effects to Induce Tsunami Hazards in South China Sea

Luchuan Ren, Wei Feng

China Earthquake Networks Center, China

G-86

New Method of Hydrologic Frequency Models Selections and Averages Based on POME

Yanfang Sang

Nanjing University, China

G-68

Flood Risk Assessment for Large-Scale Dike Systems

Weishuai Cheng

Wuhan University, China

 

Conference Room 9, Conference Building

RISK EVALUATION AND MODELING

Chair: Haibo Wang

Texas A&M International University, USA

G-93

Environmental Risk Evaluation and Crisis Response of the China-ASEAN Expo

Yuansheng Pei

Beijing Normal University, China

G-49

The Regional Ecological Risk Assessment of the River-Bay Ecosystem in the Rapid Urbanized Region: Case Study on the Shenzhen River-Bay Area

Pei Yang, Xiaoling Mao

Peking University, China

G-111

Analysis of Tabasco’s Flooding by Applying the SDMS Model

Jaime Santos-Reyes

SEPI-ESIME, IPN, Mexico

G-79

Community-based Risk Assessment of Flood Waterlogging Disaster a case study on The Second Songhua River Basin

Xinyu Jiang

Northeast Normal University, China

G-133

A Discussion on the Basic Definition for Risk of Meteorological Disasters and a Basic Assessment Model

Shujun Guo

Beijing Normal University, China

G-101

Risk Assessment of Grassland Fire Disaster in Xilingol League Based on BP Neural Network

Xingpeng Liu

Northeast Normal University, China

G-61

The Design of the Ship’s Routeing Based on the AIS Traffic Data

Song Li

Shanghai Maritime University, China

G-67

Risk Assessment of Traffic Environment at Port Using Unascertained Measure Model

Wei Li

Shanghai Maritime University, China

 

18:00-20:00

Dinner: Kaifanlou Restaurant (开饭楼)

20:00-22:00

Risk Leaders Summit (Roundtable Discussion): Conference Room 5, Conference Building

 

Tuesday, 20 October, 2009

07:00-08:30

Breakfast:Kaifanlou Restaurant (开饭楼)

08:00-08:30

Registration: Lobby, Conference Building

 

08:30-10:50

Plenary

Hall, International Conference Centre

Risk Analysis: A Useful Tool for Accident Prevention and Emergency Response (30’+10’)

Roberto Bubbico

"La Sapienza" Univeristy of Rome, Italy

Coastal Risk: Advance or Retreat (30’+10’)

Alistair Borthwick

Oxford University, UK

Risk Assessment of Decabromodiphenyl Ether (30’+10’)

Akihiro Tokai

Osaka University, Japan

A Novel Approach for Vulnerability Analysis of Hot Spots in Drought Crisis (15’+5’)

Haibo Wang

Texas A&M International University, USA

 

10:50-11:10

Tea Break

 

11:10-12:30

Parallel Sessions

Hall, International Conference Centre

Special Session (S): INTEGRATED RISK MANAGEMENT OF EMERGING RISKS (iNTeg-Risk)

Chair: Olivier Salvi

INERIS, France / European Virtual Institute for Integrated Risk Management, Germany

S-1

From Shape-Risk to iNTeg-Risk

Olivier Salvi

INERIS, France / European Virtual Institute for Integrated Risk Management, Germany

S-2

iNTeg-Risk Project : Providing the Basis for a Harmonized EU Response to the Challenges of New Technologies

Aleksandar Jovanovic

European Virtual Institute for Integrated Risk Management, Germany

S-3

Links between iNTeg-Risk and Chinese Programmes

Chongfu Huang

Beijing Normal University, China

 

Conference Room 8, Conference Building

Special Session (K): FUZZY RISK MANAGEMENT IN DECISION MAKING (Part 2)

Chair: Tuncay Gurbuz

Galatasaray University, Turkey

K-22

Managing Risk Factors in Eco-Product Design for EEE

Tuncay Gurbuz

Galatasaray University, Turkey

K-12

Crisis Management and Safety Construction of Community

Yingnan Ma

Beijing Research Center of Urban Systems Engineering, China

K-19

Text Information Extraction and Aggregation in a Mobile-Based Emergency Response System

Khaled Amailef

University of Technology, Australia

K-37

Risk Assessment of Crowded Place in Large Park Based on Human Behavior Simulation

Wei Zhu

Beijing Research Center of Urban Systems Engineering, China

K-6

Application of Maximum Entropy Principle to the Seismic Frequency – Magnitude Relation

Lihua Feng

Zhejiang Normal University, China

 

Conference Room 9, Conference Building

Special Session (L): AGRICULTURAL DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT

Co-Chairs: Maosong Li, Buchun Liu

Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, CASS, China

L-1

Concepts of Crop Insurance and Implications for Improving Crop Insurance in China

Milton Boyd

University of Manitoba, Canada

L-2

Corn Production Risk Analysis and Assessment in China

Qiao Zhang, Ke Wang

Agricultural Information Institute of CAAS, China

L-3

Reflection on Perfecting Policy-Oriented Agricultural Insurance System

Zhengmao Du

Agriculture University of Hebei Province, China

 

Conference Room 1, Conference Building

RISK COMMUNICATION, COMMUNITY CRISES RESPONSE PREPAREDNESS, AND RISK TRAINING

Chair: Jonathan Wiener

Duke University, USA

G-39

The Values and Safety Culture of Young Chinese Engineers

Marc Poumadere

Institut Symlog, France

G-50

Public Information Responses After Terrorist Events(PIRATE)

Piet Sellke

University of Stuttgart, Germany

G-70

A Risk-Based Model for Community Emergency Capacity Evaluation

Wentao Chen

University of Science & Technology Beijing, China

G-115

Research Ethics Committees and Risk Assessment

Rosemarie Bernabe

Julius Center, University Medical Center, Utrecht, Netherlands

G-112

Social Risk Amplification of Mad Cow Disease in Korea 2008

Ji Bum Chung

Korea Institute of Public Administration, Korea

 

12:30

Lunch: Kaifanlou Restaurant (开饭楼)

 

14:00-17:30

Parallel Sessions, with Tea Break during 15:30-16:00

Conference Room 8, Conference Building

Special Session (K): FUZZY RISK MANAGEMENT IN DECISION MAKING (Part 3)

Chair: Dusan Marcek

University of Zilina, Slovak Republic

K-13

Comparison of Financial Time Series Forecasts Based on Arch-Garch Models and Soft RBF Neural Networks

Dusan Marcek

University of Zilina, Slovak Republic

K-7

Assessing Operational Risk for Chinese Commercial Banks with Dynamical Situation

Lijun Gao

Shandong University of Finance, China

K-2

Churn Management of Electronic Banking Customers

Oytun Bilgen

Bah?esehir University, Turkey

K-8

A Fuzzy ANP-based Approach for Liquidity Risk Forecasting

Guanglin Xu

Shanghai Lixin University of Commerce, China

K-1

Designing an Early Warning System for Stock Market Crashes Based on Machine Learning Forecasting

Murat Acar

Bah?esehir University, Turkey

K-26

Fuzzy Rule Based Risk Evaluation Model for Real Estate Investments

Mehmet Serdar Kilinc

Istanbul Technical University, Turkey

K-20

Research on the Risk of Fraud in Financial Institutions Based on Case-based Reasoning: The Case Study from China

Zhang Chen

Hefei University of Technology, China

K-24

Setting up an Early Warning System of Financial Security under the Condition of Capital Inflow into China

Peizhi Wang

Shandong University of Finance, China

K-28

Analysis of Margin Resetting in Chinese Commodity Futures Markets

Xiaoyan Zhang

School of Economics & Management, China

 

Conference Room 1, Conference Building

Special Session (A): NATECH HAZARDS AND RISK ASSESSMENT

Co-Chairs: Bastien Affeltranger

National Institute for Industrial Environment and Risks (INERIS), France

Elisabeth Krausmann

European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Italy

A-1

Vulnerability Assessment of Tsunami on a Refinery in Southern Italy

Ana Maria Cruz

European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Italy

A-2

Fault Tree Analysis Applied to the Identification of a Critical Section of Infrastructure Exposed to Natural Hazards

Elisabeth Krausmann

European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Italy

A-3

Following the May 12th Earthquake Plants Recovery Organization

Jianfeng Liu

LAFARGE Shui On, Chengdu, China

A-4

NATECH Events in the Russian Federation

Elena Petrova

Moscow State University, Russia

A-5

NATECH Accidents at Industrial Facilities-The Case of the Wenchuan Earthquake

Elisabeth Krausmann

European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Italy

A-6

Rapid Estimation of Earthquake Damage to “NATECH” Prone Facilities

Mustafa Erdik

Bogazici University, Turkey

A-7

Major Accidents due to the Impact of Natural Events on Technological Systems

Elisabetta Renni

Bologna University, Italy

A-8

The Reconstruction of Telecommunication After the 921 Earthquake in Taiwan

Yungnane Yang

National Cheng Kung University, Taiwan

A-10

Flooding of Industrial Facilities - Vulnerability Reduction in Practice

Bastien Affeltranger

National Institute for Industrial Environment and Risks (INERIS), France

A-12

Fire Forces Confronting NATECH Risks: An Applied Research by SDIS 68

Christian Demark

Fire Forces Services of Haut-Rhin - SDIS 68, France

 

Conference Room 2, Conference Building

RISK ANALYSIS OF CATASTROPHIC ACCIDENTS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT (Part 1)

Chair: Siu Ming Lo

City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong

G-131

On the Use of Elevators For Super-High-Rise Buildings Egress Under Emergency Situations

Siu Ming Lo, Kwok Kit Yuen, Min Liu

City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong

G-74

Model of Force-Assembling for Cross-Regional Fire-Fighting and Rescue on the Basis of Demand Analysis and Combat Formation Level

Xiaohong Cheng

The Chinese People's Armed Police Force Academy, China

G-114

The Study of Randomness Risk Evaluation for Cabin Fire

Kai Yan

Naval University of Engineering, China

G-103

The Research and Software Development on Simulation Assessment Method for Fire and Explosion Accident

Zhixiang Xing

Jiangsu Polytechnic University, China

G-119

Research on Application of K-Means Cluster Analysis in Data of Fire Fighting Receive-Disposal Alarm

Fajun Dong

Chinese People’s Armed Police Force Academy, China

G-122

Computer Simulation of Human Emergency Evacuation in Subway Station

Yan Liu

University of Science and Technology Beijing, China

G-18

Dealing with Crises: Using Simulations to Train for Underground Crises

Hakkyong Kim

University of Portsmouth, UK

G-108

Design on Marine Diesel Engine Intelligent Risk Emergency Management System

Chenguang Lv

Naval University of Engineering, China

 

Conference Room 9, Conference Building

THE LATEST THEORY AND METHODOLOGY ON RISK ANALYSIS AND CRISE RESPONSE

Chair: Alistair Borthwick

Oxford University, UK

G-94

Vulnerability-Capturing Requirements

Kuoshuh Fan

National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Prevention, Taiwan

G-85

Kernel Principal Component Analysis on Human Factors Assessment in Ship Navigation Safety

Yanbin Hao

Shanghai Maritime University, China

G-132

An Introduction of CRAME V1.1 for Risk Analysis in Natural Disasters

Huiyan Ding

Beijing Normal University, China

G-98

Vulnerability Analysis of Region Surrounding Major Hazard Installations

Zhaoyang Tan

Nankai University, China

G-128

An Algorithm in Calculating Cλ=1 for Population-Level Ecological Risk Assessment

Yaobin Meng, Liangxia Shi

Beijing Normal University, China

G-41

Unconstrainted Multi-Objective Optimization of Land-Use Planning of Chemical Park Based on NSGA-II

Ming Xu

University of Science and Technology Beijing, China

G-95

Land Use Planning in the Vicinity of Major Hazardous Installation Based on Quantitative Risk Assessment

Yusheng Yang

Chinese People’s Armed Police Forces Academy, China

 

18:00-20:00

Banquet: Eco Restaurant (生态餐厅)

 

Wednesday, 21 October, 2009

07:00-08:30

Breakfast:Kaifanlou Restaurant (开饭楼)

08:00-08:30

Registration: Lobby, Conference Building

 

8:30-12:30

Parallel Sessions, with Tea Break during 10:30-11:00

Conference Room 8, Conference Building

Special Session (K): FUZZY RISK MANAGEMENT IN DECISION MAKING (Part 4)

Chair: Jie Zhang

University of Technology Sydney, Australia

K-33

Case-Based Reasoning in Avian Influenza Risk Early Warning

Jie Zhang

University of Technology Sydney, Australia

K-36

A Method of Semi-Quantitative Risk Assessment for Urban Natural Gas Pipelines

Yongqiang Bai

Beijing Municipal Institute of Labour Protection, China

K-14

Risk Evaluation System Research of Urban Underground Gas Pipeline Network

Qiuju You

Beijing Research Center of Urban Systems Engineering, China

K-4

A Risk Analysis Proposal Towards Implementation of Planned Maintenance Onboard Ships

Selcuk Cebi

Istanbul Technical University, Turkey

K-9

Process Risk Management for Proposed Ferry Expansion for Shanghai EXPO 2010

Hao Zhang

Shanghai Maritime University, China

K-30

A Fuzzy ANP Approach for Critical Facility Vulnerability Assessment

Ilker Akgun

Istanbul Technical University, Turkey

K-25

Evaluating the Failure Risk Level of an SAP Project Using ANP in Fuzzy Environment

Yesim Kop

Galatasaray University, Turkey

K-35

Key Uncertainties in Risk After a B. anthracis Attack

Tao Hong

Drexel University, USA

K-16

A Study of Application About Hazard Degree of Meteorological Disaster in Liaoning Province

Xuehui Ren

Liaoning Normal University, China

G-14

Synergy in Risk Analysis by Morphogenetic System

Germano Resconi

Catholic University, Brescia, Italy

 

Conference Room 1, Conference Building

Special Session (Z): URBAN DISASTER PREVENTION AND RISK MANAGEMENT

Co-Chairs: Guofang Zhai

Nanjing University, China

Masaru Matsumoto

Tokio Marine & Nichido Fire Insurance Co.,Ltd

Z-1

The Asian Disaster Reduction Center and Its Activities

Yoshiaki Ogane,  Masaru Matsumoto

The Asian Disaster Reduction Center, The Tokio Marine & Nichido Fire Insurance Company, Japan

Z-2

Text Processing Techniques for Supporting Risk Management

Yasunobu Maeda

Shizuoka University, Japan

Z-3

Damage Characteristics of and Lessons from Wenchuan Earthquake

Guofang Zhai

Nanjing University, China

Z-4

Scenarios-Based Disaster Risk Communication to Innovate Local Disaster Prevention Capability for Better Risk Governance

Saburo Ikeda

National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, Japan

Z-5

Integrated Urban Disaster Risk Management: An Innovative Approach and Challenge in the 21st Century

Jiquan Zhang

Northeast Normal University, China

G-21

A Study on the Spatial Distribution of Shanghai Urban Man-Made Disasters Based on GIS

Jiahong Wen

Shanghai Normal University, China

G-72

Risk Analysis on the Water Traffic Safety of Shanghai World Expo 2010

Xiangen Bai

Shanghai Maritime University, China

G-110

Medical Resources Demand Model for Urban Seismic Disaster Response and Its GIS implementation

Fuping Yang, Zhitao Wu

Chongqing University of Posts & Telecommunications, China

G-129

Exposure and Toxicity Assessment for Ultrafine Particles from Nearby Traffic in Urban Air in Seoul

Dong Chun Shin

Yonsei University, Korea

 

Conference Room 2, Conference Building

RISK ANALYSIS OF CATASTROPHIC ACCIDENTS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT (Part 2)

Chair: Roberto Bubbico

"La Sapienza" Univeristy of Rome, Italy

G-89

Analysis on Active Risk of Ship Bridge Collision

Yingjie Xiao

Wuhan University of Technology, China

G-28

The Risk of Wrecks or the Wreck of Risk? The Greek Paradigm

K Louzis, Alexandros Koimtzoglou, Nikolaos Ventikos

National Technical University of Athens, Greece

G-104

Prediction of Marine Traffic Accidents Based on Fractal Theory

Zhiyu Chen

Shanghai Maritime University, China

G-88

Risk Evaluation of Berthing and Departing of LNG Vessel for Yangkou Port Based on Ship Handling Simulator

Yihua Liu

Shanghai Maritime University, China

G-78

Data Mining of Maritime Accidents at Coastal Area

Xingwei Chen

Shanghai Maritime University, China

G-124

Fuzzy Synthetic Evaluation on Urban Underground Pipeline Emergency Preplan

Ping Sun

Beijing Research Center of Urban System Engineering, China

G-127

Risk Analysis on Spontaneous Ignition of Soy Sauce Squeezing Residue

Lijing Gao

Chiba Institute of Science, Japan

G-107

Human-Caused Risk Analysis in Ship Grounding Accident

Chenguang Lv

Naval University of Engineering, China

G-96

Further Insight into the Concept of Biomimetic System of Public Emergency Management

Zhan Wang

Wuhan University of Technology, China

 

Conference Room 9, Conference Building

FINANCIAL RISK MANAGEMENT AND COMMERCIAL RISK INSURANCE

Chair: Meiping Tong

Peking University, China

G-10

The Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Model of Enterprise Financial Risk

Fan Ye

Southwest University of Finance and Economics, China

G-113

Fuzzy Integration and Its Application in Stock Market Risks Prediction

Kaiqi Zou

Dalian University, China

G-42

Property Insurance in Regions of Debris Flows

Mingtao Ding

Chinese Academy of Sciences, China

G-59

An Empirical Study of Correlation Problem in Two Types of Operational Risk

Shuxi Meng

University of Electronic Science &Technology of China, China

G-117

Risk Assessment of Shipping Investment Environment --Based on the Attribute Theory

Qian Wang

Shanghai Maritime University, China

 

12:30

Closing Remarks and Lunch: Tianlongyuan Restaurant (天陇塬), Conference Building

CONTACT


Personnel

Affiliation

Focus

Mobile Phone

Dr. Xiaoling Mao

Peking University, China

Programme

+86 158 1028 9012

Dr. Meiping Tong

Peking University, China

Programme

+86 135 5232 8767

Ms. Zheng Huang

Peking University, China

Participants

+86 138 1134 0771

Ms. Linlin Liang

Peking University, China

Logistics

+86 134 2611 5096

Prof. Guofang Zhai

Najing University, China

Risk Leaders Summit

+86 150 6220 6598 

Dr. Sijian Zhao

Risk Analysis Council of China Association for Disaster Prevention (RAC)

RAC Councilors Meeting

+86 150 0124 8575

Ms. Xiaojing Li

Xiedao Eco Resort, China

Hotel

+86 138 1037 8588

VENUE: Xiedao Eco Resort


Address

No.1 Xiedao Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing 100018, China
北京市朝阳区金盏乡蟹岛路1号

Website

www.xiedao.com (in Chinese Only)

Telephone

400-650-3311, +86-10-84335566, +86-10-84335588, +86-10-84336001

Fax

+86-10-84336688, +86-10-84336689

Google Map
(in English)

http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source=s_q&hl=en&geocode=&q=xiedao,+beijing,+china&sll=37.0625,-95.677068&sspn=29.716225,43.330078&ie=UTF8&ll=39.937645,116.404953&spn=0.224281,0.338516&z=11&iwloc=A

Baidu Map
(in Chinese)

http://map.baidu.com/?newmap=1&l=12&c=12959924,4837136&s=s%26wd%3D%E5%8C%97%E4%BA%AC%E5%B8%82%E6%9C%9D%E9%98%B3%E5%8C%BA%E9%87%91%E7%9B%8F%E9%95%BF%E5%BA%97%E6%9D%91%E5%8C%97%E5%87%8C%E4%BA%91600%E5%8F%B7%26c%3D131%26src%3D0

Transportation

?           From Terminal 3 of Capital Airport (Distance=10 km)
Taxi: Airport Highway, Dongweilu (Weigou) Exit
机场高速公路东苇路(苇沟)出口向南1公里
Taxi Fee ≈ RMB 40 ¥ (USD 6 $)
NOTE: NO FEASIBLE PUBLIC TRANSPORT ACCESS

?           From Dowtown Beijing (Distance=18 km)
Taxi: Airport Highway, Dongweilu (Weigou) Exit
机场高速公路东苇路(苇沟)出口向南1公里
Bus: From Dongzhimen 688, 418, or 909
东直门乘坐688到蟹岛东门,或418、909到蟹岛站




RECREATION AT XIEDAO
 

 

Proceedings

Accepted papers in the proceedings of RACR-2009 which will be published by Atlantis Press, Paris, France.

1. A Note on the Difference between Disaster Prediction and Risk Assessment in Natural Disasters, Chongfu Huang

2. Risk Analysis: A Useful Tool for Accident Prevention and Emergency Response, Roberto Bubbico

3. Coastal Risk: Advance or Retreat, Alistair Borthwick

4. Vulnerability Assessment of Tsunami on a Refinery in Southern Italy, Ana Maria Cruz, Elisabeth Krausmann, Giovanni Franchello

5. Fault Tree Analysis of Infrastructure Exposed to Natural Hazards, C. Di Mauro, S. Contini, E. Krausmann, J. P. Nordvik

6. Following the May 12th Earthquake Plants Recovery Organization, Dominique Brugier, Gao Hong, Zhang Hong

7. Natech Events in the Russian Federation, Elena Petrova

8. Natech Accidents at Industrial Facilities – the Case of the Wenchuan Earthquake, Elisabeth Krausmann, Ana Maria Cruz, Bastien Affeltranger

9. Rapid Estimation of Earthquake Damage to “Natech” Prone Facilities, Karin Sesetyan, Eser Durukal, Mustafa Erdik

10. Major Accidents Due to the Impact of Natural Events on Technological Systems, Elisabetta Renni, Elisabeth Krausmann, Michela Campedel, Valerio Cozzani

11. Reconstruction of the Telecommunication System after the 921 Earthquake in Taiwan , Yungnane Yang

12. Designing an Early Warning System for Stock Market Crashes Based On Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System Forecasting, Murat Acar, Adem Karahoca

13. Churn Management of E-Banking Customers, Oytun Bilgen, Adem Karahoca, Dilek Karahoca

14. A Fuzzy Group Decision Making Approach for Risk Assessment of Renovation and Retrofitting Project, Selcuk Cebi, Aslihan Cebi, Cengiz Kahraman

15. A Risk Analysis Proposal Towards Implementation of Planned Maintenance System Onboard Ships, Selcuk Cebi, Metin Celik, Cengiz Kahraman

16. Application of Maximum Entropy Principle to the Seismic Frequency – Magnitude Relation, Lihua Feng, Gaoyuan Luo

17. Assessing Operational Risk for Chinese Commercial Banks with Dynamical Situation, Lijun Gao

18. The ANP-Based Model for Liquidity Risk Ranking, Xu Guanglin, Liu Nianzu, Wang Shuangcheng, Liu Yongchang

19. Risk Analysis of Proposed Ferry Expansion for the Shanghai Expo 2010, Hao Zhang, Xiao YingJie, Li Song, Bai XiangEn

20. A Fuzzy Multicriteria Approach to Location Selection of Wastewater Treatment Plants, Cengiz Kahraman, Ihsan Kaya, Mehmet Serdar Kilinc

21. Fuzzy Rule Based Risk Evaluation Model for Real Estate Investments, Alp Ustundag, Emre Cevikcan, Mehmet Serdar Kilinc

22. Risk Assessment of Air Pollution by Process Capability Indices under Fuzzy Normal Distribution, Ihsan Kaya, Cengiz Kahraman,

23. Crisis Management And Safety Construction Of Community, Yingnan Ma

24. Risk Evaluation for ARCH-GARCH vs. RBF NN Forecasting Models: Application to High-Frequency Time Series, Milan Marcek, Dusan Marcek

25. Fuzzy Comprehensive Assessment of Urban Underground Gas Network, You Qiuju, Zhu Wei

26. Fuzzy Multiattribute R&D Project Selection Using Real Options with Trinomial Lattice Approach, A. Cagri Tolga, Cengiz Kahraman

27. A Study of Application about Hazard Degree of Meteorological Disaster in Liaoning Province, Ren Xue-hui, Zhang Yuan-ling, Lin Xia, Wang Xiao-fei

28. A Risk Management Model for Energy Planning Using Analytic Network Process Approach, Y.Esra Albayrak, Yasemin C. Erensal, Tuncay Gurbuz

29. Managing Risk Factors in Eco-product Design for EEE, Mujde Erol Genevois, Ilke Bereketli, Tuncay Gurbuz

30. Text Information Extraction and Aggregation in a Mobile-based Emergency Response system, Khaled Amailef, , Jie Lu, Jun MA

31. Research on the Risk of Fraud in Financial Institutions Based on CBR: The Case Study from China, ZHANG Chen, LIU Wen, WU Yong

32. Analysis of Credit Risk of Local Governments Bonds in China Based upon the Fuzzy Option Model, Wang Peizhi, Liu Xinying

33. Evaluating the Failure Risk Level of An sap Project Using ANP in Fuzzy Environment, H. Ziya Ulukan, Yesion Kop, Tuncay Gurbuz

34. Hybrid Engineering Fuzzy Set Theory (EFST) and Set Pair Analysis (SPA) Modeling for Water Quality Evaluation, Dong Wang, Yuansheng Zhu, Keqin Zhao, Shengli Song

35. Analysis of Margin Resetting in Chinese Commodity Futures Markets, Xiaoyan Zhang, Zhiding Chen

36. A New Risk Analysis Approach Based on Linguistic-Valued Lattice Implication Algebra, Li Zou, Da Ruan, Zheng Pei, Yang Xu

37. A Fuzzy ANP Approach for Critical Facility Vulnerability Assessment, Ilker Akgun, Ahmet Kandakoglu, Ahmet F. Ozok

38. Fuzzy Reliability Analysis in Risk Management, Cengiz Kahraman, Ihsan Kaya

39. Selection of SAR Resources Based on Attribute Decision Making, Mao Qihuang, Feng Jiali, Shi Chaojian

40. Case-based Reasoning in Avian Influenza Risk Early Warning, Jie Zhang, Weiqing Yin, Narisorn Pongpanich, Jie Lu, Guangquan Zhang

41. Key Uncertainties in Risk informed Standards for B. anthracis Attack, Tao Hong, Patrick L. Gurian

42. A Method of Semi-quantitative Risk Assessment for Urban Natural Gas Pipelines, BAI YongQiang, WANG Tong, LV LiangHai

43. Risk Assessment of Crowded Place in Large Park Based on Human Behavior Simulation, Zhu Wei, Zhou Xiaofeng, Wang Yu

44. Concepts of Crop Insurance and Implications for Improving Crop Insurance in China, Milton Boyd, Jeffrey Pai, Qiao Zhang, Ke Wang

45. Corn Production Risk Analysis and Assessment in China, Qiao Zhang, Ke Wang, Milton Boyd

46. Reflection on Perfecting Policy-Oriented Agricultural Insurance System, Du Zhengmao, Xu Yueming, Long Wenjun

47. The Asian Disaster Reduction Center and its activities, Yoshiaki Ogane, Masaru Matsumoto

48. Text Processing Techniques for Supporting Risk Management, Yasunobu Maeda

49. Damage Characteristics of and Lessons from Wenchuan Earthquake, Guofang Zhai, Shanshan Ye, Jiyuan Hu

50. Scenarios-based Disaster Risk Communication to Innovate Local Disaster Prevention Capability for Better Risk Governance, Toshinari NAGASAKA, Hiroaki TSUBOKAWA, Yuichiro USUDA, Saburo IKEDA

51. Consequence Simulation of Vapor Cloud Explosion in LPG Storage Tank, HUANG Bin, FU Cheng

52. Risk-based Vulnerability Assessment Methodology for Petrochemical Plant, Chao Shi, Wentao Chen, Zongzhi Wu

53. Study on Enterprise-wide Risk Management Based on Risk Identification, Assessment and Countermeasures in China, Chao SHI, Jienan LI, Jie CHEN, Zongzhi WU

54. Hazard Evaluation and Numerical Simulation of Leakage and Diffusion for Continuous Point Source Gases, Jing Xin, Meng Li, Guangjun Zhang

55. The Method for Determining the Risky Area of the Storage of Hazardous Substances, LIU Kun, LIU Huawen

56. The Risk Control of Flying Debris Accident in Demolition Blasting, Gao Xu

57. Reducing the Risk of Reinforcement Corrosion in Concrete Structures and Stray Current Prevention in Metro Line, Yongjing Tang

58. Fuzzy Synthetic Evaluation of Chemical Incidents Decontamination Risk, Xiangxin Li, Yao Duan, Nannan Sun

59. The Regional Ecological Risk Assessment of the Rapid Urbanized Area: Case Study on the Shenzhen River-Bay Watershed, YANG Pei, MAO Xiao-ling, GAO Xiao-wei, DAI Ji-cui, LI Tian-hong

60. Environmental Risk Evaluation and Crisis Response of the China-ASEAN Expo, Yuansheng Pei, Kejiang Zhang, Zhifeng Yang

61. Regional Ecological Risk Assessment for Invasive Alien Plants of Compositae in Poyang Lake Basin, Guowen Xie, Weiguang Chen, Meizheng Lin, Yanling Zheng, Yisheng Zheng

62. Prediction Analysis of Typical Landslides in the Three Gorges Reservoir, Li Deying, Yin Kunlong, Wang Lei, Cheng Wenming

63. The Emergency Response Management System for Earthquake Hazard in Taiwan, B.J. Shih, M.J. Chuang, Su-Ying Chen, Siao-Syun Ke, Wei-Sen Li

64. Risk Assessment of Grassland Snow Disaster in Xilinguole League Based on Grid GIS, ZHANG Dan-Hong, Zhang Ji-Quan, Tong Zhi-Jun, Liu Xing-Peng

65. Strong Earthquake Activity and Its Effects to Induce Tsunami Hazards in South China Sea, Ren Luchuan, Xue Yan, Feng Wei

66. Flood Risk Assessment for Large-scale Dike Systems, Cheng Wei-shuai, Ji Chang-ming, Liu Dan

67. Researches on the Method of Bayesian Models Selections and Averages, Yan-Fang Sang, Dong Wang, Ji-Chun Wu

68. Risk Assessment of Grassland Fire Disaster in Xilingol League Based on BP Neural Network, TONG Zhijun, ZHANG Jiquan, LIAO Xiaoyu, Liu Xingpeng, Jin Lun

69. Uneven Information Diffusion And Earthquake Disaster Evaluation, XU Zhi-sheng, ZHANG Ren, HUANG Zhi-song, PANG Yun-feng, YAO Xue-feng, LI Qian

70. Analysis of Tabasco’s Flooding by Applying the SDMS Model, Jaime Santos-Reyes, Alan N. Beard

71. Community-based Risk Assessment of Flood waterlogging Disaster a case study on The Second Songhua River Basin, JIANG Xin-Yu, Zhang Ji-Quan, Tong Zhi-Jun, Liu Xing-Peng

72. A Discussion on the Basic Definition for Risk of Meteorological Disasters and a Basic Assessment Model, Shujun Guo, Chongfu Huang, Guolei Liu, Hanping Zhao

73. The Design of the Ship’s Routeing Based On the AIS Traffic Data, LI Song, KONG Fan-cun, SHAO Jing-li

74. Risk Assessment of Traffic Environment at Port Using Unascertained Measure Model, LI Wei, HU Shenping, YOU Qinghua, XI Yongtao

75. A Risk-based Model for Community Emergency Capacity Evaluation, Wentao Chen, Jie Chen, Chao Shi, Zongzhi Wu

76. Risk Analysis on the Water Traffic Safety of Shanghai World EXPO 2010 , Bai Xiang-en, Xiao Ying-jie, Zhang Hao

77. Urban Man-made Disaster Data Acquisition and Spatial Analysis: A Case Study of Shanghai City, Jiahong Wen, Ruijie Si, Ke Chen, Zhane Yin

78. Land Use Planning in the Vicinity of Major Hazardous Installation Based on Quantitative Risk Assessment, YANG Yusheng, WU Zongzhi

79. Further Insight into the Concept of Biomimetic System of Public Emergency Management, Zhan Wang, Qing Yang

80. Medical Resources Demand Model for Urban Seismic Disaster Response and its GIS Implementation, Zhitao Wu, Fuping Yang, Zhengwu Yuan, Jiangfan Feng, Lin Li

81. Computer Simulation of Human Emergency Evacuation in Subway Station, LIU Yan, WANG Tong, ZHU Wei, WU Zongzhi

82. Preliminary Study on Fuzzy Synthetic Valuation on Urban Underground Pipeline Emergency Preplan, Pingsun, Liwang, Weizhu

83. Model of Force-Assembling for Cross-Regional Fire-Fighting and Rescue, Xiaohong Cheng, Qingchun Kang, Dengyou Xia, Dingduo Jia, Jing Liu

84. On the Use of Elevators For Super-High-Rise Buildings Egress Under emergency Situations, Siu Ming Lo, Kwok Kit Yuen, Min Liu

85. The Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Model of Enterprise Financial Risk, YE Fan, LIU Li

86. Fuzzy Integration and Its Application in Stock Market Risks Prediction, Kaiqi Zou

87. Property Insurance in Risk Regions of Debris Flows, Mingtao Ding, Fangqiang, Qing Wang

88. Synergetic Compensation of the Risk by Morphogenetic System, Germano Resconi

89. Dealing with Crises: Using Simulations to Train for Underground Crises, Hakkyong Kim, Edward Borodzicz

90. The Risk of Wrecks or the Wreck of Risk The Greek Paradigm, Konstantinos Lusis, Alexandros Koimtzoglou, Nikolaos P. Ventikos

91. An Empirical Study of Correlation Problem in Two Types of Operational Risk, Shuxi Meng, Zongfang Zhou

92. Data Mining of Maritime Accidents at Coastal Area, CHEN Xing-wei, WANG Zhi-ming

93. Kernel Principal Component Analysis on Human Factors in Vessel Traffic Safety, HAO Yanbin, HU Shenping, REN Lei, CHEN Zhiyu

94. Vulnerability-Capturing Requirements, Yu-Ming Chen, Kuoshun Fan

95. Risk Evaluation of Berthing and Departing of LNG Carrier for Yangkou Port, Liu-Yihua, Xiao-Yingjie

96. Analysis on Active Risk of Ship Bridge Collision, Xiao Ying-jie, Liu Yi-hua, Bai Xiang-en, Guan Ke-ping, Yang Xiao-jun

97. Vulnerability Analysis of Region Surrounding Major Hazard Installations, Zhaoyang Tan, Yingquan Duo, Zongzhi Wu

98. Development of Software Systems for City Regional Fire Risk Assessment, Xing Zhi Xiang, Ren Fang

99. Prediction of Marine Traffic Accidents based on Fractal Theory, CHEN Zhiyu, HU Shenping, HAO Yanbin

100. The Study of Randomness Risk Evaluation for Cabin Fire, Kai Yan, Jinyun Pu, Yue Hou

101. Unconstrainted Multi-objective Optimization of Land-use Planning of Chemical Park Based-on NSGA-II, Ming Xu, Yingquan Duo, Zongzhi Wu

102. An algorithm to calculate C=1 for population-level ecological risk assessment, Yaobin Meng, Liangxia Shi, Peijun Shi, Bin-Le Lin

103. An Introduction of CRAME V1.1 for Risk Analysis in Natural Disasters, Huiyan Ding, Chongfu Huang

104. Evolutionary Risk Analysis Based on Modeling Enterprise in Random Selection, Yundong Huang

105. The Values and Safety Culture of Young Chinese Engineers, M. Poumadere, R. Bertoldo, A. Brizon, X. Zhao

106. Research Ethics Committees and Risk Assessment, Bernabe, R, van Thiel, GJMW, Raaijmakers, JAM, van Delden, J.J.M.

107. Social Risk Amplification of Mad Cow Disease in Korea 2008, Ji Bum Chung

108. Human-caused Risk Analysis in Ship Grounding Accident, Chenguang Lv, Pu Jin-yun, Hou Yue

109. Design on Marine Diesel Engine Intelligent Risk Emergency Management System, Chenguang Lv, Pu Jin-yun, Hou Yue

110. Risk Assessment of Shipping Investment Environment --Based on the Attribute Theory, WANG Qian, PAN Yi-tian, LIU Yong-chang, DUAN Qian-qian, XU Guang-lin

111. Risk Analysis on Spontaneous Ignition of Soy Sauce Squeezing Residue, Lijing GAO, Naoharu MURASAWA

112. Research on Application of K-means Cluster Analysis in Data of Fire Fighting Receive-disposal Alarm, DONG Fajun, Ma Wen

113. Exposure and Toxicity Assessment for Ultrafine Particles from Nearby Traffic in Urban Air in Seoul, Ji-Yeon Yang, Young-Wook Lim, Jin-Yong Kim, Ji-Young Jang, Gun-Woo Lee, Soo-Hwan Kim, Dong-Chun Shin

114. Comparative in Vitro Cytotoxicity Assessment of Some Manufactured Nano-particulate Materials, Ji-Yeon Yang, Ji-Young Jang, Young-Wook Lim, Soo-Hwan Kim, In-Hong Choi, Gang-Tak Lee, Jin-Woo Chun, and Dong-Chun Shin

 


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